Columbus, Ohio Economy Expected to Resume Economic Growth in 2010

    COLUMBUS, OH, January 07, 2010 /24-7PressRelease/ -- Employment in the Columbus, Ohio region may decline early in 2010, but these declines will be offset by employment growth later in the year, according to the Columbus Chamber's Blue Chip Economic Forecast released at the Columbus Metropolitan Club. Year-to-year net economic growth is predicated to be 0.1 percent, or 800 jobs, compared to 1.8 percent decrease in 2009. The Columbus region includes the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) of Delaware, Fairfield, Franklin, Licking, Madison, Morrow, Pickaway and Union Counties.

"Columbus MSA employment declined in 2009, but much less than average," said Bill LaFayette, Ph.D., vice president, economic analysis, Columbus Chamber. "The region's loss compares favorably to the likely 3.7 percent U.S. decline. This has been the case throughout the recession."

The strongest labor growth is expected in business and professional services, healthcare,private education, and transportation and utilities. The construction and manufacturing sectors are expected to suffer the largest declines.

"Columbus MSA employment should enjoy growth in the second half of the year- mostly or completely offsetting declines in the first half," said Lafayette. "The net effect will show average employment for the year at 0.1 percent higher than in 2009."

The 2010 Blue Chip Economic Forecast examines trends in 10 individual sectors. Key findings include:

• Greater Columbus employment is expected to grow weakly, at 0.1 percent in 2010.

• Business network and professional services dramatically outperformed the national average during the recession and will hold steady with a gain of 2.7 percent.

• Education, health and social services saw significant growth in 2009, primarily due to the healthcare industry and estimated increased employment in higher education. This trend will continue in 2010, with a 2.0 percent gain.

• Government, leisure and other services and wholesale trade are expected to experience minimal growth.

• Retail employment fared better than average locally during the recession, declining 3.7 percent (3,800 jobs) since December 2007 compared with 6.0 percent nationwide. Although consumer spending will grow with the economy in 2010, the moderate growth rate is likely only to slow employment declines, resulting in a 1.5 percent job loss regionally.

• Manufacturing was down 9.3 percent, or 7,100 jobs in 2008, due to the recession. The anticipated moderate growth will slow this decline for a 3.5 percent loss.

• Economic growth should slow the declines in the financial activities industry in 2010, resulting in a 1.6 percent decline.

• Transportation and utilities will outperform the overall economy in 2010 as companies replenish inventories and the Heartland Corridor boosts distribution consolidation in Columbus.

• Construction companies have shed 5,300 jobs (14.3 percent) since the recession began in 2007. Although there are positive signs in the residential construction market, commercial vacancy rates remain high. The forecast calls for a further 4.9 percent decline in this sector.

The Columbus Blue Chip Economic Forecast is published by the Columbus Chamber. The forecast is a consensus derived from the independent forecasts of four area economists - Bill LaFayette, Ph.D., vice president, economic analysis, Columbus Chamber; Joseph Mandeville; George Mokrzan, Ph.D., vice president, senior economist, Huntington Bancshares, Inc.; and James Newton, Ph.D., chief economic advisor, Commerce National Bank. The full report is available at www.columbus.org.

About the Columbus Chamber of Commerce
The Columbus Chamber of Commerce leads and supports economic growth and development in the Greater Columbus community. It supports a membership of 2,700 businesses. Learn more about Columbus at www.columbus.org.

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